This is false9analysis. Welcome to our blog ! Our Topic is EPL TOP4 Race.
As we can clearly see that Man City has already on the verge of Winning the Epl this year
So we can shift our focus on rest 3 places which are 2,3 and 4th. I like to analyse so we’ll take a look at their Epl & cup fixtures and other factors such as fatigue,form and motivation.
Manchester United –
Games to Play – 10 in PL , FA cup quarterfinals , Champions League quarterfinals
If we can safely say that they will progress through FA cup quarterfinal and might go to FA cup final so 3 games we can add to their PL tally.
In champions second leg at Old Trafford they are likely to go past Sevilla with their Pragmatic approach or boring some might want to say it. With the experience of Jose Mourinho they might as well go further if they put in those performances. So we can say that they will be playing around 16-17 games till the end of season minimum.
Tougher PL opponents yet face are City,Liverpool and Arsenal (you may say that Arsenal is no more tougher :P)
Other than that they can easily see off other matches and pick up points as they have been doing (7*3 = 21 points) and against big guns around 5 points ( could be more/less ) that’s sums up to 26 being pragmatic as Manchester United lets say 24 points. It would make total of 59+24= 83
If they go further in competitions like FA cup and champions league then fatigue, injury,form and during last few matches relegation battle makes it more difficult to get the result out so that could play major factor.
Games to Play – 10 in PL , Champions League quarterfinals
As Liverpool has already thrashed Porto by 5 goals so Klopp can rotate the players if he wants to. Looking at their current form and attacking threat they are more likely to beat big attacking teams like Real Madrid,Bayern and PSG than defensive minded teams. We can say that they will be playing around 13/15 matches minimum and maximum of 17 (PS – champions league tie consist of two leg so we have to add it by 2 :P)
Out of 10 PL games lets say ( 2 against Man United and Chelsea) are tougher on paper but with Liverpool they might win both and lose some against smaller teams. So (7W, 2D, 1L) assuming this they would collect around 23 points which makes it to 57+23 = 80
Still with the champions league progress and EPL top4 competition will make it more interesting to see how things will pan out.
Games to Play – 10 in PL , FA Cup, Champions League Quarterfinals
Over the last 4 PL games Spurs have collected same points as City and Liverpool.They are in great form as their champions league comeback in Turin is a proof of that. As long as they have Harry Kane they have got all the chance to go further in champions league. Keeping all competitions in mind they will also play around 16-17 games.
With Pochetino wanting to add silverware to their cabinet it would be no surprise if they can go all out for FA cup as City are out.Having said that they will be facing 2 big guns in their remaining premier league fixtures and rest are easy but they have manage those games as they are playing FA cup and Champions League. If we say (7W,1D,2L) 22 points they can gather which makes it to 55+22= 77
Only thing that could change this dramatically is that if they do not go past Juve at home then it would make EPL top4 even more exciting as they will be able to compete with best 11 most of the times.
Games to Play – 10 PL , FA cup quarterfinals, Champions League Quarterfinals
Tough they managed to draw against Barca at home we can not be pretty sure whether they will go through or not as their form has been erratic. We do not know which Chelsea side will turn up that day in Camp Nou.
Out of PL matches remaining they seem to have tougher matches than other teams competing for EPL top4. It would be very difficult to get positive result in all of those games but if they are out of champions league ( which is most likely scenario ) it would help them to focus on top 4.
Lets face it Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs are in good form compared to Chelsea. Recently Chelsea are having problems with striker and formation combination.Only positive is Willian’s form. They can snatch up to (7 W,1D,2L) 22 points 53+22 = 75
To Sum this up let’s take look at final estimated points
Man United – 83 Points
Liverpool – 80 Points
Spurs – 77 Points
Chelsea – 75 Points
But as season will progress we might see change in the final table. I guess relegation battle, Champions league tie and it’s distance, crazy weather in England and as always unpredictability of premier league can throw out any result.
My Gut feelings says
Liverpool and United will finish with same points 81,Tottenham 80 and Chelsea 5th.
It’s safe to say Arsenal will finish 6th as they have conceded 6 goals in 4 days against same side and they have been hopeless this season.
What do you think ? Who will make it to the EPL TOP4 ?
(Update – Check out my latest blog regarding EPL TOP4 – Chelsea Putting Pressure on again )
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